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Seeking Alpha 2024-04-01 16:00:00

VanEck March 2024 Bitcoin ChainCheck

Summary Our on-chain snapshot for March 2024 reveals heightened transfer activity, fewer transactions, and record Bitcoin mining revenues even with a slowdown in Ordinals demand. The annualized cost to roll Bitcoin futures contracts jumped sharply to 21%, indicating bullishness about Bitcoin price and a shortage of dollar funding across the space. In contrast to the market's upward trajectory, Bitcoin's daily transactions declined by 4%. March's on-chain Bitcoin snapshot: Increased transfers, fewer transactions, record mining revenues despite Ordinals slowdown. Please note that VanEck has exposure to bitcoin (BTC-USD). Our on-chain snapshot for March 2024 reveals heightened transfer activity, fewer transactions, and record Bitcoin mining revenues even with a slowdown in Ordinals demand. At these levels, we still like Bitcoin miners for a catch-up trade. Some takeaways for March 2024: Bitcoin’s Price Action Market sentiment: In March, Bitcoin's price surged to an average of $65,504, a 38% monthly increase, reflecting growing investor confidence as we approach the next halving event. Regional trading: Trading volumes across the U.S., Asia, and Europe are becoming more balanced, with a 10% increase in price changes across these regions, potentially indicating a more globally unified investment interest in Bitcoin. Source: Glassnode, as of 3/25/24. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Funding rates: The annualized cost to roll Bitcoin futures contracts jumped sharply to 21%, indicating bullishness about Bitcoin price and a shortage of dollar funding across the space. Bitcoin’s Network Activity, Adoption, and Fees Daily transactions: In contrast to the market's upward trajectory, Bitcoin's daily transactions declined by 4%. Ordinal inscriptions: Daily inscriptions dropped by 27%, reflecting reduced activity in this specific area of the Bitcoin network. Total transfer volume: $69.34 billion in value was transferred across the Bitcoin network daily, an explosive increase of 74%, elevating this activity into the 90th percentile of historical performance. Average transaction fees: The average user paid $7.68 in fees to send a Bitcoin transaction in March, an increase of 25% of m/m, reflecting the growing cost of network participation amid surging demand, a fee level that ranks within the 93rd percentile historically. Bitcoin Market Health and Profitability Percent of addresses in profit : 98% of Bitcoin addresses are now in profit, suggesting nearly universal profitability for Bitcoin holders in the current market climate. Historically, once this number reaches 100%, the Bitcoin price tends to make repeated all-time highs. Net unrealized profit/loss: This ratio climbed to 0.61, indicating a growing optimism within the market, but not yet at the “euphoric” levels above 0.75 that mark previous peaks. Bitcoin Miners Total daily BTC miner revenues : Miners enjoyed a significant 35% boost in average daily revenues in March, reaching $62.84 million, a figure that places their earnings in the 99th percentile for historical miner revenue. We have been expecting Bitcoin miners to reverse their recent underperformance YTD, which is beginning to occur. Chart of the Month: Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Miners Source: Bloomberg, as of 3/25/24. XBTUSD Curncy is the XBTFUSD Spot Exchange Rate. BTCMINER Index is a custom index. See definitions in disclosures. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bitcoin ChainCheck Monthly Dashboard Notes: Net unrealized profit/loss ratio (NUPL) can be calculated by subtracting the realized market cap from the market cap and dividing the result by the market cap. When a high percentage of Bitcoin’s market cap consists of unrealized profits, it can be interpreted that investors are greedy. Background reading here . Links to third party websites are provided as a convenience and the inclusion of such links does not imply any endorsement, approval, investigation, verification or monitoring by us of any content or information contained within or accessible from the linked sites. By clicking on the link to a non-VanEck webpage, you acknowledge that you are entering a third-party website subject to its own terms and conditions. VanEck disclaims responsibility for content, legality of access or suitability of the third-party websites. Disclosures Coin Definitions Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. 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