Summary As June concludes, marking the year's halfway point, investors naturally take a step back to reevaluate their portfolio holdings, market performance, and economic conditions. Discover what our analysts have to say about the state of the markets for the first half and what potentially lies ahead in the second half. There appears to be growing angst among investors as the potential for a market correction becomes more apparent as the markets continue to rise. The potential implications of diverging easing policies from the global central banks could be a key theme moving forward. Introduction Welcome to the first post of SA’s The Macro Brief! This official SA Profile will highlight our analysts' latest economic and market analysis to help investors gauge the ever-volatile financial landscape through various recurring series. The economy is the foundation of financial markets, influencing everything from corporate earnings and consumer spending to central bank policy and inflation. Understanding economic trends, policy decisions, and sector activity can be critical when assessing market opportunities and making informed investment decisions. With that said, the second issue of Seeking Alpha’s macro-based series is here! (And with a few changes). It is now called Market and Economic Insights (previously The Macro Brief ). If this is your first time seeing this article series, please take a look at our inaugural issue last month for a more in-depth look at what you can expect. Without further ado… June Commentary As June concludes, marking the year's halfway point, investors naturally take a step back to reevaluate their portfolio holdings, market performance, and economic conditions. U.S. indexes in June largely carried over momentum from prior months, with the NASDAQ nearing a 6% return. AI themes continued to dominate discussions among investors, with a growing worry that market breadth might be something to start worrying about for the second half of 2024. Bond yields pulled back a bit, but still remain up about 50 basis points across the board year-to-date. On the economic front, unemployment continues to creep northward despite seemingly positive figures from the BLS’s non-farm payrolls report. And inflation seems to be plateauing, with the CPI coming in flat for May month-over-month, but still higher than the Fed’s preferred target of 2% annual growth. In this issue, our analysts examine… The state of the markets for the first half and what potentially lies ahead in the second half. The growing angst among investors as the potential for a market correction comes into play as the markets continue to rise. The potential implications of diverging easing policies from the global central banks. June’s Market and Economic Snapshot Seeking Alpha June’s Trending Themes Mid-Year Market Review 3 Predictions For H2 2024 | Bret Jensen “The rally from late 2023 in the market has carried over into 2024, although the bull move up has been extremely top-heavy. NVIDIA Corporation ( NVDA ) has ridden the AI wave to better than a 150% return so far this year and by itself accounts for a third of the rise in the overall market.” First Half Wrap: The AI Boom, Robust Earnings, Auto Sales On Tap | Christine Short “While it has been an action-packed first half, what's been conspicuously absent from the financial front page has been volatility. The VIX Index had just a lone spike above 20 during a short window in April when equities pared early-year gains.” 2024 Q3: Stay Invested In Big Tech But Watch For Weak Breadth | JR Research “As we head into the second half of 2024, there is much chatter about weak underlying market breadth. I've assessed that as well. As a result, market conditions are likely mixed and less clear.” One Down, One To Go | MV Financial “The first six months of the year were perhaps most notable for steadily weaning the bond market off its fantasies of multiple rate cuts.” 2024 Midyear Investment Outlook: Anticipating Rate Cuts | Kristina Hooper “Despite widespread expectations of a global economic slowdown in 2024, growth and inflation have continued to perform above expectations across most major economies.” Investor Anxiety Intensifies Stock Market Crash Looming, But Not For The Reasons Most Analysts Think | Michael Harris “High concentration, low breadth, higher inflation, a prolonged yield curve inversion, and even higher rates are not enough to cause a market crash.” Can The Bull Market Keep On Kicking? Or Is It Growing Tired? The Answer May Surprise You | MarketGauge “While the market has gone up well above expectations in H1 and may be due for a normal pullback or healthy correction, earnings have been stellar, earnings growth well above expectations, and the markets are fully expecting an easing from the Fed…” Sentiment Speaks: As Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market | Avi Gilburt “When people get too bearish and sentiment hits a negative extreme, then everyone who has wanted to sell has sold, and there is only one direction left for the market to take. The same applies when the market gets too bullish.” A Substantial Correction In Stock Prices Is Likely Coming Soon | BullBear Trading “Predictions of a world-changing technology revolution led by AI and robotics, shifting to Intelligence Economics, are causing disruptions in stock pricing.” The Soft Landing Lives, For Now | Claus Vistesen “Markets are still enjoying a soft landing, defined as a world in which inflation is drifting lower, even if still-sticky in key areas, the global economy and labour markets remain unencumbered, and monetary policy is on track to ease modestly.” Inflation Or The Economy - Which Breaks First? | Fear & Greed Trader “It should be clear by now that inflation is still present, and at some point, markets will have to come to grips with reality and all it brings with it.” This Doesn't End Well | Bret Jensen “The huge rally off the lows of the last market swoon that ended late in October has also occurred against the backdrop of a clearly slowing economy. In fact, one could argue that much of the economy is already in recession.” Deglobalization of Central Banks’ Policies What I Expect After The Fed Cuts Rates In 2024 | Robert & Sam Kovacs “In the past century, there are 4 post rate cut markets which should make investors shiver and fear the idea of investing in equities at all.” Powell And The Fed Are More Hawkish Than You Think: Expect Economic Weakness Ahead | Logan Kane “Between the lines, the Fed is likely worried about cutting rates too soon and stoking a bubble with assets already trading above their value relative to fundamentals.” The Fed Can't Stop A Recession | James Foord “History suggests there’s little the Central Bank can do to aid the real economy once the deleveraging cycle starts.” What Does The Bank Of England's Delayed Rate Cut Imply For U.S.? | James Picerno “If the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged is a guide, the outlook for the start date for a US rate cut may be further down the line than generally assumed.” Global Central Banks Queue Up Rate Cuts: Is It A Mistake? | Robert Brusca “For two- or three-years central bankers have been exceeding their inflation targets consistently. And yet, central banks are now either executing or considering interest rate cuts for the period ahead.” Conclusion We hope our analysts' insights serve as a valuable financial compass for investors seeking to make informed investment decisions. Thanks for reading. Tell us what you think by commenting below! If you'd like to see more, follow this account . Please let us know if you have any suggestions you’d like to see added to this series and any ideas for new additional recurring series. We're always open to your valuable feedback. To stay current on the latest economic and market events coming up, subscribe to Wall Street Breakfast , Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business news summary.
