Seeking Alpha 2024-04-04 15:57:32

Bullish sentiment falls amid talks of interest rate cut - AAII

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the stock market have declined this week amid talks of interest rate cut coming to the spotlight again. A total of 47.3% respondents of the American Association of Individual Investors, or AAII, Sentiment survey showed optimism about where the market is headed in the next six months, compared to 50% of those polled a week before. The historical average stands at 37.5%, while the 1-year bullish high is 52.9%. Meanwhile, the percentage of surveyors who felt bearish about the market also fell slightly this week. It came in at 22.2%, compared to the 22.4% figure last week. Neutral sentiments rose this week, with 30.5% of the investors polled by AAII seeing no change in the market direction. The number was 27.6% the week before. The survey results came after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday repeated the need for more evidence before cutting rates, indicating that a slight possibility of rate cuts later this year. Powell said he doesn't expect "that it will be appropriate" to lower the policy rate until "we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2%." This has led to Wall Street’s main stock indexes gain on Thursday. However, a recent Seeking Alpha analysis by Michael Kramer pointed out that “rising commodity prices and warning signs indicate that inflation readings in the coming months may not be favorable, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in 2024.” Separately, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed that U.S. services growth slowed in March, with PMI falling to 51.4 versus 52.6 in February. The S&P 500 index ( SP500 ) fell 0.8% in the last one week, while Dow Jones Industrial Average Index ( DJI ) declined 1.7%. NASDAQ Composite Index ( COMP:IND ) fell 0.6%. NASDAQ 100-Index ( NDX ) declined 0.5% since March 28. Bitcoin USD ( BTC-USD ) fell 6% since last Thursday. Gold ( XAUUSD:CUR ), which gained nearly 3% in the last one week, jumped to another record high on Wednesday after Powell's remarks. More news on market Spring 2024 Snapshot Of The S&P 500's Market Cap Greenback Losses Extended, But Look For Consolidation In North America S&P 500 And Bond Market Annual Returns; Style Box Update Dow, Nasdaq, S&P move up as interest rates come back in focus

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