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Seeking Alpha 2024-04-11 14:37:45

Bullish sentiment continues to decline as inflation stays hot

Bullish sentiment continues to decline as inflation stays hot

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the stock market has declined for the second consecutive week as sticky inflation narrows chances of interest rate cuts. A total of 43.4% of respondents of the American Association of Individual Investors, or AAII, Sentiment survey showed optimism about where the market is headed in the next six months, compared to 47.3% and 50%, respectively in the last two weeks. The percentage of those surveyed who felt bearish about the market also rose this week. It came in at 24%, compared to the 22.2% figure last week. Neutral sentiments also rose this week, with 32.5% of the respondents polled by AAII seeing no change in the market direction. The number was 30.5% the week before. The hotter-than-expected consumer inflation report released this week, which climbed 0.4% in March and exceeded the 0.3% rise that economists expected, dampened hopes of a near-term prospect for a Federal Reserve rate cuts. “Even without a war or any other event that causes a major disruption in global oil supplies, we see no scenario for U.S. inflation in which it is likely that the U.S. Fed would be justified in lowering interest rates, any time between now and October 2024,” pointed out Seeking Alpha analyst James Kostohryz. However, President Joe Biden still sees the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by the end of the year, he said on Wednesday, standing by his prediction laid out last month. Nasdaq, S&P and Dow futures ticked higher on Thursday, following the report. The S&P 500 index ( SP500 ) fell nearly 1% in the last one week, while Dow Jones Industrial Average Index ( DJI ) declined over 1%. NASDAQ Composite Index ( COMP:IND ) fell 0.6%. NASDAQ 100-Index ( NDX ) declined 0.8%. Bitcoin USD ( BTC-USD ) rose 4% since last Thursday, while Gold ( XAUUSD:CUR ) rose nearly 3%. Gold futures racked up another record high settlement on Tuesday, extending its string of gains. However, the prices eased slightly on Wednesday. More news on markets Inflation Scenarios Without A War: U.S. Markets Face Trouble Dollar Consolidates But Adjustment Is Not Over March CPI Comes In Hot, Probabilities For Rate Cuts Drop Nasdaq, S&P, Dow tick higher after cooler PPI data Nasdaq, S&P shed about 1% each, Dow drops more than 400 points after hot CPI

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